


Let's start this Trend Briefing by looking back. At the beginning of 2007, as part of our STATUS LIFESTYLES trend, we wrote:
"Here's something trend watchers, CMOs and other
business professionals should be able to agree on: in the end, when
dealing with (and selling to) people, everything always comes back to
status. In a traditional consumer society, he or she who consumes the
most, the best, the coolest, the most expensive, the scarcest or the
most popular goods, will typically also gain the most status."
Now, you guessed it: the above still rings true in 2008, and should
be on your mind whenever/wherever -- when tracking trends, when mapping
out new strategies and when coming up with new products and services
for your customers. In fact, this year, even more brands will realize
(if not grudgingly accept) that 'old', mass-era status symbols, from
the Audi R8 to the De Beers Talisman Watch Collection are no longer
every consumer's wet dream. After all, as mature consumer societies are
increasingly dominated by (physical) abundance, by saturation, by
experiences, by virtual worlds, by individualism, by participation, by
feelings of guilt and concern about the side effects of unbridled
consumption, status is to be had in many more ways than leading a
lifestyle centered on hoarding as many branded, luxury goods as
possible.
We've dubbed the above phenomenon STATUS SPHERES: a variety of
lifestyles, activities and persuasions, which can be mixed and matched
by consumers looking for recognition from various crowds and scenes.
Getting too vague? Here are some STATUS SPHERES to keep an eye out for
in the next 12 months:

Traditional consumption is about buying more and/or better stuff
than fellow consumers. Which is by no means dead. In fact, expect the
consumer arena in 2008 to still be about hundreds of millions of
consumers who do want to consume more, who do covet all things bling, who do
crave in-your-face brands. Oh, and even if (a big if*) conspicuous
consumption were ever to subside in mature consumer societies, then
count on the emerging middle classes in China,** India, Russia, South
Africa, Turkey, Nigeria, Vietnam, Indonesia, Mexico and Brazil to
proudly take over the torch. In other words, count on multiple
consumption and status arenas to develop simultaneously for years to
come.
However, while the rise of the global middle class is as big a story
as they come, the rise of high net worth individuals (HNWIs) has an
equally significant impact on consumerism. Consider the following
numbers, from the 2007 World Wealth Report by Merrill Lynch and
Capgemini:
- The number of HNWIs—individuals with
net assets of at least USD 1 million, excluding their primary residence
and consumables—in the world increased 8.3% to 9.5 million.
- The
number of ultra-HNWIs—individuals with net assets of at least USD 30
million, excluding their primary residence and consumables—grew by
11.3% to 94,970.
- The BRIC nations (Brazil, Russia, India and
China) continue to play increasingly important roles in the global
economy. China and Russia were among the top ten countries with the
fastest growing HNWI populations. China’s HNWI population grew by 7.8%
to 345,000 people and Russia’s has increased by 15.5% to 119,000.
Brazil (120,000 HNWIs) and India (100,000 HNWIs) also showed continued
strength.
With so much (new) wealth and disposable income around the world,
not only is there money to be made from selling premium goods, there’s
also a constant need for redefining what constitutes luxury, for what
constitutes status in bling-driven consumer societies. If millions have
access to the same premium goods, to the same premium brands, these
premium offerings lose some of their value, as their entire raison
d’être was to offer something that others could not get access to.
Scarcity is becoming less scarce and wealth is always relative, leading
to actual STATUS DESPAIR among those who are by all means, financially well off.
So in an arena that has become crowded with middle class and high
net worth consumers, expect luxury goods to take on more outlandish
forms and shapes, at ever-higher costs. Our most recent favorite
example of STATUS DESPAIR was Prince Alwaleed bin Talal bin Abdulaziz
Al-Saud of Saudi Arabia buying himself a USD 320 million Airbus 380,
which for another USD 100+ million will be turned into a 'flying
palace' with three bedrooms, private lounges, bathrooms, offices, a
steam bath and exercise machines. But even here, commoditization is
threatening the Prince's purchase: Airbus actually expects to sell
about 20 VIP versions of the A380.
* As we’ve pointed out many times before, one mistake both trend
watchers and brands make all the time, is to assume or pretend that a
certain ‘trend’ will affect or be embraced by ALL consumers. No.
Remember, in life and in trends: beauty (or ugliness) is in the eye of
the beholder.
** The Chinese middle class consists of those people who have a
degree of economic independence, but not a great deal of social
influence or power. The term often encompasses merchants and
professionals, bureaucrats, and some farmers and skilled workers.
Definition of middle class in China: managers, professionals, skilled
technicians and service workers earning USD 2,500 to USD 10,000 a year
each. It is expected to grow from 100 million people in 2005 to 200
million people by 2010, reaching 315 million by 2015. (Source: Insight
Bureau.)
Luckily, before we reach total STATUS DESPAIR, there's still plenty
of room for innovation in the traditional sphere: check PREMIUMIZATION
(trend # 2) below.

Attractive to consumers who are driven by experiences instead of the
fixed—those who are driven by entertainment, by discovery, by fighting
boredom, who increasingly live a transient lifestyle, freeing
themselves from the hassles of permanent ownership and possessions.
We dubbed these consumers TRANSUMERS
about a year ago, and the trend is still building. Implications for
2008? An obsession with the here and now, an ever-shorter satisfaction
span, and a lust to collect as many experiences and stories as possible,
is undermining the perceived value (and thus status) of fixed goods and
services. More practical examples in SNACK CULTURE (trend # 3) below.

Where to begin? In an online world or virtual world, social status
2.0 is all about who you connect to and who wants to connect to you,
tribal-style. It also encompasses status gained from the number of
views for one's photos on Flickr, to the number of friends on Facebook,
to one's gaming skills and levels (just a snippet: Microsoft's Halo 3
racked up USD 170 million in sales on its first day of availability,
making it the hottest-selling title in video game history. Total sales
since September 2007: 4+ million copies) to the good looks of one's
avatar, to finding out about whatever/wherever on anything before
anyone else does. More on this in ONLINE OXYGEN (trend # 4) below.

With the environment finally on the agenda of most powers that be,
and millions of consumers now actively trying to greenify their lives,
status in the eco-sphere is both more readily available, and increasing
in value. A substantial subset of consumers is already bestowing
recognition and praise on Prius drivers while scorning SUV owners, and
this will only accelerate as even more design-minded and branding-savvy
eco-firms push to the forefront in 2008. Make it green, make it
effortless, make it visible if not bold if not iconic, and don't
hesitate to point out your competitor's polluting alternatives ;-) For
more on this, see ECO-ICONIC (trend #5) below.

Find us one high-profile billionaire who's not deeply into 'giving'
right now. In fact, whether it's giving away your riches, your time, or
sharing your (content) creations with total strangers, giving is the
new taking. For an excellent overview of the world's most generous
philanthropists (trendsetters par excellence!), check out BusinessWeek's recent special on the topic. For brand implications, see BRAND BUTLERS (trend #6) below.

Especially for younger (and younger-at-heart) consumers,
participation is the new consumption. For these creative beings, status
comes from finding an appreciative audience, which is much the same way
brands operate. No wonder that it's becoming increasingly important to
hone one's creative skills. Status symbols, make way for STATUS SKILLS?
What's going to be your participation strategy for 2008? See also
trends #7 and 8 in this briefing: MYI | MAKE IT YOURSELF and CROWD
MINING.

One thing you can't go wrong with this year is to ask yourself how your current and new products and experiences will satisfy an audience of very diverse status seekers. If you haven't done so already, get rid of the habit of only
focusing on traditional status symbols, and you will find there is no
end to the number of STATUS SPHERES you'll be able to identify.


London's St. Pancras International railway station is now home to Europe's longest champagne bar (96 meters)
Definitely part of the 'traditional sphere', PREMIUMIZATION is not going to go away in 2008. Basically,
with more wealth burning holes in (saturated and experienced)
consumers' pockets than ever before, quick status fixes derived from
premium products and premium experiences will continue in full force
next year.
What's new then? How about 2008 being about the PREMIUMIZATION of everything and anything.
In other words, no industry, no sector, no product will escape a
premium version in the next 12 months. Some poignant PREMIUMIZATION
examples for that sign of the times feeling:
- OK, so we've done wine, coffee and tea, which leaves water
to get its much-deserved PREMIUMIZATION moment. And we don't mean of
the Pellegrino or Perrier kind: those 'upgraded' bottled water brands
have become too mainstream to excite truly premium-obsessed consumers
(who don't care about carbon footprints, but we'll get back to that
later on). So make way for Evian's limited release Palace
bottle, only available in high end bars and restaurants. Features a
specially designed pouring top and is accompanied by a stainless steel
coaster, selling for USD 15-20 per bottle.
- Bling H20
is bottled water that comes in limited edition, corked, 750 ml frosted
glass bottles, embellished with Swarovski crystals. Established in 2005
by a Hollywood writer-producer who noticed that “you could tell a lot
about a person by the bottled water that they carried,” Bling H20 is
designed to be as much a fashion accessory as a drink of water. Aiming
to be the Cristal of bottled water, it's been spotted at everything
from the MTV Awards to the Emmys. The bottles cost from USD 17–480.
- Tasmanian Rain
is captured "on the pristine north west coast of the island of
Tasmania, Australia." The water is collected "just minutes from where
the World Meteorological Organization records the world's purest air."
As this rain has traveled eastward via air currents over Antarctica and
10,000 miles of ocean, it contains 17 parts per million of dissolved
solids. Tasmanian Rain is collected by a custom-designed catchment
facility and never touches the ground. And so on.
- Carlsberg 900 (which doesn't have its own
website) launched this summer in a very limited number of selected bars
in Stockholm. Developed in collaboration with 12 top Swedish
bartenders, Carlsberg 900 is “brewed from refined virgin hops and
selected crystal malt, and triple filtered with a longer cooler
fermentation process to ensure a pure, delicate taste.” Carlsberg 900
is priced at the premium end of the market, about the price of decent
glass of champagne.
- Further proof that *anything* can be PREMIUMIZED: luxury marshmallows. From Dean & DeLuca's 1-pound Boulé Marshmallow Sampler of lemon chiffon, passion fruit, vanilla and rose-petal flavors (USD 28) to Pete's Gourmet dipped and undipped marshmallows, which are 1 USD a piece, to Plush Puffs' Maple Pecan, RazzVeryBerry, Key Lime Sublime and Toasted Coconut flavored 'gourmet marshmellows'.
- Get
ready to welcome honey to the world of PREMIUMIZATION. Most supermarket
honey is imported from China and Argentina, and/or blended from many
sources, creating a homogenous taste. But, like water, marshmallows,
and beer, honey is now striking back with a sweet vengeance, and
artisanal honeys are on the rise. Since honey's flavor and color are
determined by the source of nectar, there's a huge variety of very
local and exclusive types of honey, with floral sources varying from
tupelo gum tree and Tasmanian leatherwood to cranberry and orange
blossom. The Savannah Bee Company,
for example, sells its honeycomb jars with this awe-inspiring
description: "Filled with honey equaling the life's work of two bees,
each golden cell brims with the concentrated nectar of thousands of
rare and remote Georgia flowers.“ In New York, the Blue Ribbon Bakery Market
has installed a honey bar, selling imported raw honey from Mexico.
Seasonal (read: limited time only) varieties include mesquite blossom,
orange blossom and golden reserve. Also emphasizing the unique flavors
of different varieties, Bee Raw Honey sells sets of honey samples, packaging the liquid gold in test-tubes that are corked and hand-sealed with beeswax.
- More PREMIUMIZATION of the sweet kind: chocolate
succumbed to PREMIUMIZATION years ago, with artisan chocolate boutiques
now charging top dollar/euro/pound for wasabi-infused bonbons from San
Francisco to Singapore. So what's next? A recent article in the
Financial Times' How to Spend It supplement (which, together with Monocle,
is probably the best publication dedicated to PREMIUMIZATION) lists a
number of chocolatiers who are going 'bespoke'. Check out firms like Melt, Paul A Young and Sir Hans Sloane Chocolate House
for some mouth-watering bespoke inspiration, then figure out if the
future of PREMIUMIZATION for your industry is bespoke, too. Hey, Puma is already on board ;-)
Now, even though the food and beverage sector definitely leads the PREMIUMIZATION trend, there's much more going on:
- The Hasbro FurReal Friends Butterscotch Pony
seeks to "fulfill every little girl's dream of having her very own
pony." From Hasbro: “Butterscotch is a miniature Shetland pony, with a
fur coat and mane that feel just like a real pony. Butterscotch also
has built-in sensors all over her body, which enable her to respond to
children in lifelike ways. If talked to, she will cock her head toward
the speaker quizzically and blink her eyes. She will also react to
petting, showing her enjoyment by rubbing her head against a child,
twitching her ears, and swishing her tail. At over three feet tall,
Butterscotch is more than strong enough to support a rider up to 80
pounds in weight. Along with her brush and carrot, Butterscotch comes
with a special adoption certificate.” Hasbro told BusinessWeek that
“Butterscotch is an attempt to think beyond the toy industry's usual
pricing limits to capture a bigger share of the family budgets that
regularly go to iPods and video game consoles.”
- Portuguese paper products company Renova sells Renova Black,
lauded as the first fashionable toilet paper. Price per roll is EUR
2.17. Renova Black is also available as Renova Red, Renova Orange, and
Renova Green.
Emirates' First Class private suites
Singapore Airlines Suites
Jet Airways' Suite in the Sky
- Air travel has become one massive inspiration source for
PREMIUMIZATION. We're not even going to try to list all the
business-class-only carriers that have sprung up, some of which are
thriving. Also keep a close eye on the PREMIUMIZATION pissing match in
First involving airlines like Emirates ('First Class private suites'), Singapore Airlines (12 suites on board of each of its new Airbus 380s) and Jet Airways (Suite in the Sky).
- The battle continues on terra firma: Lufthansa has been operating a dedicated First Class terminal
in Frankfurt for a few years now, and recently opened a second one in
Munchen, but got trumped in size and pomp by Qatar Airways' Premium Terminal in Doha.
BTW, notice how these exercises in PREMIUMIZATION do wonders for brand and quality perception across the board...
- Hauzen
is Samsung's new premium home appliance brand. Products include a
washing machine, kimchi cooler, fridge and air conditioning system.
Some of the appliances are designed by well-known Korean designer Andre
Kim (that's right, a premium edition within a premium edition). Not
available outside South Korea. Yet.
- The Plantronics Voyager 855
is the first two-in-one stereo bluetooth headset with "exclusive
AudioIQ technology for crystal clear wireless sound." Price: USD 120.
- The KABE Royal Tower
is a double-decker caravan. The 8.2 meter long camper is 4.4 meters
high, allowing people to stand up straight even on the top deck. The
lower deck features a living room, kitchen and breakfast dinette, plus
a bedroom with single beds, while the upper deck has a 'lounge' with an
L-shaped sofa and a cocktail cabinet. A door from the lounge leads out
onto the roof of the front section, which serves as a sunbathing
terrace. The new double-decker caravan is fully equipped with air
conditioning on both floors, a dishwasher and more. Price: EUR 105,000.
- Strollers had their PREMIUMIZATION moment a few years ago
when Bugaboos and Stokkes burst onto the scene. Now car manufacturers
like Porsche
want a piece of the premium pie: their stroller folds up small enough
to fit in the luggage compartment of almost all sports cars. It comes
with pneumatic tires and Carrera S rims for a high-performance ride, as
well as a lockable front wheel, a handbrake and parking brake. Price:
USD 690.
- Next: baby furniture. Combining functionality with style, Ooba
designs cribs and high chairs that are touted by everyone from the
curator of MoMA to French magazines that cater to parents who want to
help their children develop a taste for beautiful objects.
- Lenovo now offers the ThinkPad Reserve Edition laptop, encased in leather. The Reserve Edition is based on the recently released 12.1-inch Lenovo ThinkPad X61s, and comes
with 'Blue-Button Instant Access' for instant messaging with dedicated support staff.
Price: USD 5,000, sold by invitation only.
- The Laundress
is a collection of high-end fabric detergents and care products. When
Lindsey Wieber, a sales executive for Chanel, and Gwen Whiting, a
senior designer for Ralph Lauren, realized that their expensive clothes
were suffering from dry cleaning, they took matters into their own
hands and created The Laundress. Their line of premium fabric care
products provides detergents for superior fabrics, from wool/cashmere
shampoo to baby detergent. In their own words: “All fabrics are
different—everything needs to be treated differently. All of our
products were developed for a specific reason.” Adding to the sense of
luxury, detergents and care products come in four signature fragrances:
Classic, Cedar, Baby and Lady. The Laundress range also includes
laundry bags and 'wet' swimsuit pouches.
- British Feature Radiators proudly states:
“Our collection is made up of the best contemporary designer radiators
(including stainless steel radiators), traditional cast iron radiators,
electric radiators and towel rails on the market. With over 150
radiators on display in our showroom, expert advice, unrivalled
customer service and nationwide delivery, feature radiators has been
recognized the UK's leading radiator specialist." And regarding their 'Trend' model:
"Tall and flat-fronted, this supermodel in the radiator world is an
exclusive addition to Feature Radiators' contemporary collection. Made
of lightweight aluminum and created by top Italian designers, the Trend
not only has a tidy appearance but also has a magnificent heat
output. Available in classic white and silver metallic.”
Clearly, the list goes on forever. In 2008, no self-respecting
brand, even those who market the most mundane of commodities, will fail
to introduce at least one premium version of whatever it is they're
peddling. (Candles! Did we mention candles yet? Check out Acqua di
Parma's Design Candle Collection, priced at a cool USD 130 per candle).
If only for the premium profit margins that are involved. Is your industry or sector next?

SNACK CULTURE represents the 'transient sphere' on steroids,
catering to consumers’ insatiable craving for instant gratification. SNACK
CULTURE thus embodies the phenomenon of products, services and
experiences becoming more temporary and transient; products that are
being deconstructed in easier to digest, easier to afford bits, making
it possible to collect even more experiences, as often as possible, in
an even shorter timeframe. The signs are everywhere, from
ubiquitous commerce to fragmented (shattered?) media to fast fashion to
temporary ownership to Netflix-style all-you-can-eat models. SNACK
CULTURE, like PREMIUMIZATION, is not a 'new new ' trend, but definitely
one that will continue to thrive next year.
To get you going, here’s a list of fairly random SNACK CULTURE spottings that is sure to grow longer in the next 12 months:
- Food & Beverage | Some numbers on actual food snacks from the New York Times:
- In
just three years, sales of 100-calorie packs of crackers, chips,
cookies and candy have passed the USD 200-million-a-year mark, and
sales grew nearly 30 percent last year. According to analysts, the
market for these pint-size packages could easily double because of
their simple appeal: they help consumers eat less without having to
count calories themselves. The growing popularity of these snack packs
may also be another sign that some consumers have had their fill of
supersized food.
- A report from the Hartman Group
found that 29 percent of Americans believed that 100-calorie packages
were worth the extra cost. For manufacturers, snack packs are about 20
percent more profitable than larger packages.
- Some
snack makers think even 100 calories might be too much for some
diet-conscious consumers. Hershey, for example, now sells 60-calorie
chocolate bars. And Jell-O sells 60-calorie pudding packs.
- Which then may explain the success of Chicago-based burger joint Minnies,
which proves that bigger isn't always better. Featuring a wide
selection of Lilliputian gourmet burgers and sandwiches—including
traditional favorites such as grilled cheese and Reubens, alongside the
more inventive Mykonos (roast chicken, tzatziki sauce and kalamata
tapenade) and Thanksgiving Delight (roast turkey, cranberries and wild
rice gravy)—Minnies applies nouvelle cuisine portions to casual dining.
- Old-school SNACK CULTURE meets PREMIUMIZATION: in Europe,
McDonald’s is replacing bolted-down, yellow-and-white plastic furniture
with lime green designer chairs and dark leather upholstery. It is the
restaurant chain’s biggest overhaul in more than 20 years and, with its
franchisees, it has spent more than EUR 600 million (USD 890 million),
remodeling 1,280 European restaurants in 2007.
- Laundry care | Procter & Gamble’s Swash
offers students dryer sheets, dewrinkling spray, stain-removing pens,
odor-removing sprays and lint rollers that can help give their clothes
the look and smell of having been washed without the trouble or expense
of actual washing.
- Cosmetics | Take a high-margin product like
cosmetics, and cut prices by at least half. Now add online
accessibility with customization, community and values. Throw in a
pinch of demystifying expert advice, and you've got e.l.f.,
short for "eyes, lips, face." Launched by New York-based JA Cosmetics
roughly three years ago, e.l.f. appears to be turning the cosmetics
industry on its ear. All cosmetics cost just USD 1, and customers can
create personalized profiles that generate product recommendations and
customized looks. e.l.f. currently ships only to US and Canadian
addresses, but versions of the site have recently launched for both the
UK and Australia. The company 's products are also available in US
stores, including Target and a variety of drugstores and convenience
chains.

- Automotive | Just like bicycles, a pretty
staid sector suddenly brimming with innovation, the small car sector
seems ready for a truly global boom. Eco-concerns, design savvy and an
(urban) willingness to regard cars as a utility instead of the ultimate
status symbol will lead to a neverending stream of small-car
innovations. Keep an eye on the company who kick-started most of this:
Smart. Since its introduction in October 1998, nearly 800,000 people in
36 countries have purchased a ‘Smart Fortwo’. The new Smart Fortwo was
released in Europe in April 2007 and will become available in the US,
for the first time, in Q1 of 2008. The vehicles will be built at a
plant in France and will be equipped for the US market. The Smart
Fortwo will come in three trim levels—a Pure baseline model that starts
under USD 12,000, a Passion Coupe that starts under USD 14,000 and a
convertible that starts under USD 17,000. Consumers can place a USD 99
refundable reservation for a production model on smartusa.com. So far, more than 30,000 reservations have been received.
- Fast Fashion | Snacks, cars, magazines….
And fashion, of course! If you need to explain SNACK CULTURE to
colleagues who may not totally get it (yet), discussing the success of
the Zaras and H&Ms of this world will probably do the trick.
Whether it’s fast fashion’s fast moving product cycles, low prices, or
SNACK-style ‘wear-only-a-few-times'. In fact, shopping for clothes
increasingly resembles shopping for groceries.
The numbers are impressive: H&M’s
turnover in 2006 was SEK 68,400,000,000 (EUR 6.8 billion). Currently,
H&M has 1,400+ stores in 28 countries. Most of its future expansion
will take place in the USA, Spain, Italy, Germany, the UK and Canada.
In 2007, H&M opened first-time stores in Hong Kong and Shanghai,
with a Tokyo store planned for fall 2008. Zara is part of Spanish Inditex,
which also includes fashion chain Bershka. Zara’s turnover (EUR 5.35
billion in 2006) accounts for two-thirds of Inditex’s turnover (EUR 8.2
billion in 2006). For the next years, the focus of Inditex’s expansion
will be on Europe (outside home market Spain) and on Japan and China.
Zara had 990 stores in 62 countries at the end of last year, and
expects to have added another 130-140 before the end of this year.
- Media | Described as "Rocketboom for Wall Street" and "Squawk Box meets Saturday Night Live", Wallstrip
offers stock advice in a format that's second nature to viewers who
watch YouTube instead of CNBC. Wallstrip's daily videos are taped in
New York, hosted by actress Lindsay Campbell, and feature one public
company in every 3-minute online show. Wallstrip was founded in October
2006, aiming to be both sassy and serious while teaching a new
generation of investors to pick their own stocks. The show was created
by Howard Lindzon, who runs an investment firm and hedge fund in
Arizona and a venture capital fund in Toronto. Following Lindzon's
personal investment philosophy, the focus is on stocks at all-time
highs, like Apple, Google and Toyota, analyzing why they're strong and
whether they'll continue to increase in value. 'Man on the street'
interviews add to Wallstrip's informal vibe. The show has been voted
one of the top podcasts on iTunes, and is also distributed via social
video sites like Revver and YouTube. With enough VC backing to wait and
see how its own value will develop, Wallstrip is in no hurry to chase
advertising revenues, focusing instead on building a dedicated
following of valuable eyeballs.
Wallstrip perfectly fits what Wired Magazine touted
as 'snack-o-tainment' earlier this year (yes, that inspired us to come
up with SNACK CULTURE). People are becoming accustomed to consuming
large amounts of 'bite-size' content rather than the longer-form stuff
of traditional media. Online video clips, the iPod Nano, pay-per-view
TV shows on iTunes, short games played on handheld devices, the list
goes on (do check out MediaSnackers, a news site dedicated to this demographic). From Wired's article:
“Music, television, games, movies, fashion: We now devour our pop
culture the same way we enjoy candy and chips—in conveniently packaged
bite-size nuggets made to be munched easily with increased frequency
and maximum speed. Today, media snacking is a way of life. In the
morning, we check news and tap out emails on our laptops. At work, we
graze all day on videos and blogs. Back home, the giant HDTV is for
10-course feasting - say, an entire season of 24. In between are the
morsels that fill those whenever minutes, as your mobile phone carrier
calls them: a 30-second game on your Nintendo DS, a 60-second webisode
on your cell, a three-minute podcast on your MP3 player. Like Homer
Simpson at the all-you-can-eat seafood buffet, we are capable of
devouring whatever is in front of us—down to the plastic
crustaceans—and still go fishing for Colbert clips at 3 am."
- OK, so one more: 20 Minutes,
which distributes more than 2,3 million copies every weekday in Spain,
France and Switzerland. Forget free newspapers that want 1 hour of your
time; 20 minutes is all consumers need to get their daily fix.
- Surprise | Infusing SNACK CULTURE with a
dose of surprise, Singapore beverage company Out of the Box caters to
consumers who respond to "What would you like to drink?" with a
non-committal "anything" or "whatever". The company has launched two
complementary brands: Anything and Whatever.
Anything is fizzy and comes in six flavors (Cola with Lemon, Apple,
Fizz Up, Cloudy Lemon and Root Beer), while Whatever is non-carbonated
(Ice Lemon Tea, Peach Tea, Jasmine Green Tea, White Grape Tea, Apple
Tea, Chrysanthemum Tea). The surprise part? Consumers don 't know which
flavor they're getting until they take a sip. Cans are simply labeled
Anything and Whatever, and the list of ingredients is limited to
generic wording. Judging from the buzz on Singapore forums, teens
immediately got the concept and are loving it. Surprise fits SNACK
CULTURE well, as it satisfies the desire for the thrill, for discovery.
Worth bringing a surprise to market in 2008, even if it's just a
one-off, and even if only for creating a buzz.
- People | SNACK CULTURE applies to more than consumption of goods and services. Consider Adult FriendFinder,
the ‘casual encounters’ site now claiming more than 19 million active
members. (Real world) sex too has now become something that can be
instantly gratified, with the help from millions of other ‘willing and
able’ participants. The ‘rate before you date’ features add a level of TRANSPARENCY TYRANNY, too.
Note: not everything will come in bite-size format. If only for the
mass-scale infrastructure that is needed to jet off countless ‘sun
snack’ travelers, or to ship those millions of containers loaded with
SNACK CULTURE goods and ingredients. So in addition to the
ever-smaller, we’re seeing the ever-bigger. In fact, 'biggest of the
biggest' is going to grab quite a few headlines in 2008. Check out:
- The Emma Mærsk
was named in August 2007 at Odense Steel Shipyard, Denmark, and at 397
meters long, 56 meters wide and at 11,000 TEU*, she and her sister
vessels** are the largest container vessels in the world. EMMA MÆRSK,
and three of her sister vessels, are visiting the following ports:
Algeciras, Bremerhaven, Hong Kong, Ningbo, Rotterdam, Suez Canal,
Tanjung Pelepas, Yantian and Xiamen.
- Singapore Airlines
debuted the first of its new A380 airplanes last month. Singapore
Airlines has configured the aircraft in a 471-seat layout, even though
it has the potential to hold 853 people in full economy class
configuration.
* TEU stands for 'twenty-foot equivalent unit'; a measure of volume
based on the size of a container that is twenty feet long by eight feet
wide by eight feet high.
** There will be a total of eight of these mammoth ships, with the last one due for delivery to Mærsk Line in January 2008.
Oh, and then we haven't even discussed SNACK CULTURE infiltrating banking (ING Direct, anyone?) or hotels (from Ginger Hotels to Yotel to Qbic)... Needless to say, we’re truly looking forward to your transient, SNACK CULTURE innovations in 2008. Let us know, so that we can include them in our 2009 overview ;-)

- SNACK CULTURE meets 'Instant Gratification 2.0': the growing
number of sophisticated SEE-HEAR-BUY services that enable consumers to
instantly purchase anything virtual they see or hear. Best example to
watch in 2008: the iTunes WiFi Music Store.
How it works: when a user hears a particular song playing at his or her
local Starbucks, he/she can instantly find the artist, album and name
of the track on his iPhone or iPod Touch. By tapping the Starbucks
button in either device's main menu, the current song shows up, as well
as the last ten songs played. They can be purchased and downloaded
instantly via Starbucks' wifi connection.
Amazon.com's just-launched Kindle,
a digital book reading device, is going after the same market for the
written word, with books and (international or niche) paper-based
magazines as the most desirable 'must have right now' items. (We're not
sure about charging for otherwise free blogs, though ;-)
- However, taking the SEE-HEAR-BUY trend one step further is Midomi;
anyone who's ever had a song stuck in his or her head (and who hasn't?)
but was unable to place the title or artist is bound to think Midomi
pure genius. Users need only sing, hum or whistle a few bars into their
computer microphones, and this online search engine can match the tune
against its ever-growing musical library. The customer then has the
option to purchase the track and can connect with others who share the
same musical interests. Currently available in six languages and with
more than two million licensed music tracks and a growing collection of
user-created files, Midomi still has lots of potential for further
enhancements, such as allowing for customers to call Midomi and
download songs directly to their mobile devices.
So... Who's going to build similar SEE-HEAR-BUY services in 2008 for
looking up movies, television shows and even commercials by just saying
a few lines? And how will these instant gratification services further
shape expectations among demanding, INFOLUSTY consumers? More on this in our February 2008 Briefing, which will highlight the EXPECTATION ECONOMY. Stay tuned ;-)

Ah, the Online Revolution, the mega-trend that keeps on giving, one
that single-handedly dominates the 'connecting sphere'. While Web 2.0
has already single-handledly created young brands that are now bigger
and more valuable (at least on paper) than many an old economy
stalwart, Web 3.0 and 4.0 and 5.0 guarantee enough motion for this
innovation-orgasm to continue uninterrupted for years to come. Five
years ago, we introduced ONLINE OXYGEN as the engine behind all this
excitement: control-craving consumers needing online access as much as
they need oxygen.
Fast forward to 2008, when we would
need a thousand pages/screens to highlight every noteworthy online
sub-trend and Big Idea to watch; the Joosts and Androids and Spores and ordering burgers in Seoul by RFID and the hundreds of yet-unknown start-ups that are about to make an appearance on TechCrunch.
So instead, we'll look at a few developments that will spread and
encourage ONLINE OXYGEN even further in the next few years to come.
If there's one device that's going to introduce another few hundred
million people to the online world, it's the phone. And yes,
initiatives like Google's Android and 'their bidding
on the 700MHz band' and WiMax and so on are definitely going to speed
things up. We know this is not a new insight, and nor will it happen
overnight in 2008, but if you're inclined to look beyond 2008, consider
this:
- Right now, there are 2.7 billion mobile phones in use.
- The
number of worldwide mobile phone users is expected to grow to
approximately 3.3 billion in 2011. The Asia-Pacific region is expected
to account for 47.9% of global subscribers by 2011.
- Globally,
nearly 1 in 3 mobile subscribers will use a mobile broadband connection
by 2012. This will represent over 1 billion users.
(Sources: Juniper, EITO, MIC, Strategy Analytics.)
This year will also see a number of initiatives to bring (back)
ONLINE OXYGEN to the last vestiges of offline-ness, the pockets of the
real world that have managed to keep even regular mobile broadband
connections at bay (planes, trains, and automobiles anyone?):
- Even though Boeing discontinued its Connexion inflight
internet service last year, don't count on consumers' insatiable demand
to be online 24/7 to remain unmet forever. In fact, the problem wasn't
passenger demand; the satellite-based service was simply too expensive
and too heavy (weight equals cost in aviation). So Lufthansa and
American Airlines are among the first airlines to bring back inflight
internet later this year. Lufthansa is working with T-Mobile
to bring back wifi to its planes and will also offer text messaging,
e-mail and data access for cell phones, but not phone calls.
American Airlines has signed up with AirCell and will initially test a broadband service on trans-Atlantic flights on its fleet of 767s. Virgin America
has also teamed up with AirCell to offer broadband internet services
for passengers traveling in the continental US sometime this year. The
service will allow passengers to go online using either Virgin
America's Red inflight entertainment system or their own wifi-enabled
devices while in flight. Virgin America will launch the service across
its entire fleet of aircraft.
Meanwhile, Australian
carrier Qantas will offer wifi and electrical outlets on its new A380
and renovated 747-400s in the second half of 2008.
- European high speed train operator Thalys
will soon provide wireless broadband internet access to passengers
traveling in Comfort 1 and Comfort 2 between Paris, Brussels, Amsterdam
and Cologne. It will be the first international high speed train to
provide this service across European borders. A consortium, consisting
of Nokia Siemens Networks, satellite operator 21NET and Belgium
broadband cable operator Telenet, will combine satellite, GPRS and UMTS
technologies with wireless networks similar to wifi hotspots to provide
a continuous internet connection on board trains traveling across the
borders at speeds of 300 km/h. The first Thalys trains equipped with
wifi will run commercially in the next few weeks.
Autonet Mobile
is a wireless internet service designed to maintain seamless
connectivity while driving. The service turns a car into a wifi
hotspot, allowing multiple people to connect their own wifi-enabled
computers to the internet. Autonet runs over both 3G and 2.5G cellular
data networks. Users simply plug the in-car router into their cigarette
car lighter, connect their wifi device(s) and surf the net. Autonet
Mobile claims to be effective on more than 95% of roads in the US. Avis
is the first corporate customer of Autonet, rebranding the service as Avis Connect.
Avis Connect is currently available at San Francisco, Las Vegas,
Newark, New York LaGuardia, Chicago O’Hare and Chicago Midway,
Dallas/Ft. Worth, Miami, West Palm Beach and Ft. Lauderdale airports,
as well as at a San Francisco Avis office. The cost of the Avis Connect
service is USD 10.95 per day. For individual users, the equipment will
cost USD 399 plus monthly costs.

Sometimes, the Next Big Thing can be right under your nose. Consider the online riches to be reaped in 2008 from... ecommerce!
Sure, it's been around for years and years, but prepare for a forceful
'sequel'. After all, never before have so many consumers been willing
to overcome security threats, still shockingly bad (or boring) design,
and delivery screwups. In other words, 2008 should be a goldmine for
smart e-tailers, who, if they get their act together, could make
billions and billions of dollars, euros, pounds, yen, kroner, lira and
rand that are impatiently waiting to be spent by web-savvy consumers
around the world. So in the next 12 months, spend blood, sweat and
tears on improving your ecommerce presence; the pay-off will be
immediate, and far more substantial than investing in Web 2.0 me-toos!
We'll let the numbers do (some of) the talking:
- Some recent US holiday
spending numbers: online retail spending hit a record USD733m on 'Cyber
Monday', the Monday after Thanksgiving which usually represents the
first significant spike in online holiday spending in the US. The spend
figure increased by 21% on last year and was an 84% jump from the
average daily online spending totals during the preceding four weeks,
according to ComScore. More than USD 10.7bn has been spent online
during the holiday season, covering the first 26 days of November 2007,
a 17% increase on the same period last year.
All in all, ecommerce in the US is expected to reap sales
of USD 259 billion this year, representing an 18% gain over 2006.
- Forrester
estimates that in the US, almost USD 400 billion of store sales — or
16% of total retail sales — are directly influenced by the web as
consumers research products online and purchase them offline. This will
expand at a 17% compounded annual growth rate over the next five years,
resulting in more than USD 1 trillion of store sales by 2012.
- In
the UK, online shopping sales exceeded GBP 4 billion a month for the
first time in July 2007. On a 12-month basis, online sales are up 36%.
(Source: Brand Republic.)
- South
Korea's ecommerce sales soared more than 26% in 2006, thanks to
increased spending on children's goods, fashion and sports-related
items. Combined ecommerce transactions reached 13.45 trillion won (USD
14.29 billion). (Source: Yonhap.)
Now, if you want some tried and tested tips and examples of how to
make the most of your ecommerce presence in 2008, including
collaborative filtering 2.0, upselling and cross-selling, establishing
offline outposts for your online brand, real world pick-up services,
luxury e-tailing, group buying services and more, you will have to
purchase the 2008 Trend Report. But even if you decide to stick just to this Briefing, we hope ECOMMERCE | THE SEQUEL is on your radar now!

OK, one more ONLINE OXYGEN subtrend, if not sub-sub-trend: our two
cents on social networking. As discussed in earlier briefings,
nichification based on interest, background, affiliation, hobbies,
travel destinations and so on is now a fact. In fact, expect
experienced social networkers to not only have a Facebook, Xing, Bebo,
Linkedin or MySpace profile, but to also spend time on smaller
networking sites (from Mesh Tennis to Yideoz to Goodreads to Trupoli to KLM Airlines' Club China to (soon) DanceJam) when things get, well, focused.
So what's next? One thing to watch is social networks of any kind
going local, if not hyperlocal. Neighborhoods. Streets. Buildings.
Floors. Like many subtrends, this one isn't spanking new, in fact, we
dubbed this opportunity NETHOODS ("neighborhoods, streets and
even apartment buildings will get their own internet and intranet
sites: not just to promote the many qualities they have to offer their
(prospective) inhabitants, but also to provide communal interaction and
localized services") in 2003, but sometimes timing is
everything, and now that networking on a grander scale is in place,
connecting locals if not neighbors is just a business opportunity
waiting to happen. To get you going, here's what our sister publication
Springwise New Business Ideas recently wrote about LifeAt:
- Launched in March 2007, LifeAt
offers property managers a turnkey solution for launching a 'nethood'
for their building. So far, over 335 buildings have joined. The
property websites are private and password protected, for use by
residents only. Besides offering a platform where residents can meet
and communicate, sites also allow users to post classified ads and rate
and review local businesses. In addition, property managers post news
about vacancies and maintenance work. By connecting people who tend to
share not only a building but also similar socioeconomic backgrounds,
and offering them a source of hyperlocal information, LifeAt is
creating valuable links between cyberspace and 'meatspace'. The concept
is likely to find a wider audience now that people of all ages are
getting used to sharing information online. Free for residents, LifeAt
charges buildings a one-off fee of around USD 6,000 to create and
launch a site. One to set up in other countries? And how about a
version focusing specifically on office buildings? Also check out Neighborology, Neighbours.ie, and townconnect.com.
Yours to run with in 2008, and yes, if you do this well (just think
of the local advertising opportunities), Google Local or Yellow Pages
will buy you. Don't forget, all politics and business is local ;-)

The reason so many people fell for our ECO-FATIGUE spoof
last month (rest assured, we'll never spoof anyone again ;-) is that an
eco-backlash is actually quite plausible. After all, while millions of
consumers are firmly rooted in the aforementioned ECO-SPHERE, millions
of others are not. But let's focus on those who are now getting their status fix from consuming in a more sustainable manner.
Over the past few years, the ECO trend has moved from ECO-UGLY (ugly, over-priced, low performance alternatives to shiny 'traditional sphere' products and services) to ECO-CHIC (eco-friendly stuff that actually looks as nice and cool as the less responsible version) to ECO-ICONIC in 2008:
"Eco-friendly goods and services sporting bold, iconic design and
markers, that help their eco-conscious owners to visibly tout their
eco-credentials to peers."
So what does ECO-ICONIC look like? How about the new Honda FCX Clarity, or the Mitsubishi I, or the Bahrain World Trade Center:
- Honda's FCX Clarity
is a fuel cell vehicle that runs on electricity powered by hydrogen,
and emits only water vapor and heat. It will be certified by the
California Air Resources Board as a Zero-Emission Vehicle (ZEV) and by
the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) as a Tier-2 Bin 1, the
lowest possible federal EPA emission rating. It will also receive an
EPA Inherently Low Emission Vehicle rating due to its entirely sealed
fuel system. It will qualify for accessing High Occupancy Vehicle lanes
in California with just one person on board. As the fuel cell
technology was developed by Honda exclusively for the FCX Clarity, and
was not retrofitted to an existing model, Honda's engineers "cleared
away all preconceived notions of automobile design, challenging
themselves to discover the new possibilities that can only be realized
with the fuel cell vehicle." Our verdict: the FCX will be more
recognizable than the Prius, making an even more telling statement
about the owner's 'STATUS SPHERE'.
- Another zero-emission car with iconic potential is the Mitsubishi i,
first exhibited at the 40th Tokyo Motor Show, this September. From the
brochure: "The 'fastback' exterior design expresses the quickness of
the car with an appearance that is pleasing and lively. Geometry,
metallic materials and body epitomize the futuristic electric vehicle.
The light green exterior marks another association with nature. The
pearlescent paint, which shines when hit with direct light, brings
feelings of advanced, futuristic technology and environmental peace of
mind."
- The Bahrain World Trade Center
is the first commercial building in the world to incorporate
large-scale wind turbines within its design to harness wind power. It
has three massive wind turbines that measure 29 meters in diameter that
are supported on bridges between the BWTC’s two 240 meter high towers.
The tower structures themselves help funnel the existing on-shore Gulf
breeze that is used to generate greater power efficiency. Very….iconic!
When designing your 2008 or 2009 eco-product line, don't mirror
what's already out there in the non-eco world, but be bold, original,
and yes, iconic. Whether it's cars, buildings or detergent bottles.
Find your own Jonathan Ive (see trend #8, CROWD MINING) and get going.

There's also going to be some serious ECO-EMBEDDED activity taking
place in 2008, with governments taking the lead. After all,
corporations’ and consumers’ good intentions don’t always cut it. So
expect 2008 to see much more of the 'fourth R', aka regulation (remember: reduce, reuse, recycle..) For more on this, see our 2008 Trend Report.

Consider this: if consumers value the authentic, the practical, the
exclusive, and they're also forever looking to make life more
convenient, even save some time, then why persist in bombarding them
with your mega-million dollar/euro/pound, one-way advertising
campaigns? Instead of stalking potential and existing customers (which
is not very 2008), why not assist them in smart, relevant ways, making
the most of your products and whatever it is your brand stands for?
Remember, giving is the new taking ;-)
Think baby food or diaper brands opening a lounge area, including
diaper-changing facilities and microwaves, for parents and their
offspring at a major airport or in malls. Or a bank installing secure,
high-tech lockers next to the beach, so beachgoers can safely store
their belongings when going for a swim or walk.
Now, we're not branding gurus, and we're not suggesting that BRAND
BUTLERS is the new (or rehashed) 'lovemark', but if the following
examples don't inspire you to do something truly useful and new with (a
small part of) your advertising budget in 2008, then we don't know what
will:
- Continuing the tradition of using shipping containers to
house all things pop-up, a spotting from the Netherlands caught our
eye. At the Lowlands
music festival, jeans brand Wrangler offered festival-goers a
much-needed service: laundry. At 18 meters wide and 9 meters high, the Wrangler Laundromat
was hard to miss. People dropped off their mud-encrusted laundry and
were sent a text message the moment it was ready. No change of clothes?
Wrangler came up with a generous solution to that problem, too: they
handed out black overalls to anyone who used the laundromat. Like most
other pop-up ventures, Wrangler Laundromat is an exercise in
experiential marketing, aimed at surprising and delighting consumers in
a way that magazine ads or TV spots usually can't.
- Wrangler isn't the only brand to have tackled dirty laundry at pop festivals. In Slovenia, home appliance manufacturer Zanussi-Electrolux has been offering free laundry services at Rock Otočec
for several years and has cleaned thousands of muddy t-shirts and
jeans. After picking up their spotless garments, visitors are given a
"Dear Mom, I'm clean" postcard to send home.
- Acknowledging that traveling with infants can be a strain on both parents and children, Amsterdam's Schiphol Airport
opened the Schiphol Babycare Lounge by Nutricia last summer (2007).
Located in the airport's main departure terminal, the lounge is (as the
name indicates) a co-branding effort by Schiphol and Nutricia, a Dutch
baby food brand. Designed by MV Architects, the lounge is serenely stylish and geared to ensuring a baby's well-being while en route. The 90 m2
area features seven circular 'cabins', each of which can be closed off
with sheer curtains to create a personal zone. The booths have
comfortable circular seating curving around a crib. Lights in the
lounge are dimmed for sleeping babies, with individual reading lights
for parents. For infants that need a bit of distraction, each booth has
a gadget that projects colored lights onto the ceiling, just above the
crib. Other facilities include a changing area, baby baths and a
microwave for heating food. Although Nutricia hasn't stocked a pantry
with samples of their own baby food, the brand does offer tips on baby
nutrition and traveling with children. The space is open daily from 6
am to 10 pm, accessible free of charge to parents and children aged 0–3.
- Also check out Turkish diaper brand Evy Baby,
which is reaching out to parents by placing changing rooms in Turkish
shopping malls. The diaper manufacturer has already installed 22
changing rooms in Istanbul, Ankara, Izmir, Antalya, Adana and Mersin.
Each clean and cheerful room has a changing table and comfortable
chairs for nursing. And, of course, samples of Evy Baby's products.
- More on sanitary stops meeting BRAND BUTLERS: Charmin restrooms.
Due to its success last year (close to 430,000 people made use of the
service), Procter and Gamble's bathroom tissue brand reopened its
temporary 20-stall restroom in the heart of Times Square from mid
November to end of December 2007. The facilities offered clean, deluxe
bathrooms, baby changing stations, stroller parking, seating areas and
of course lots of luxury toilet and bath tissue (including Charmin's
new product lineup, which includes a choice between Ultra Soft and
Ultra Strong versions). Specially designed, water-conserving toilets and faucets were provided by Kohler, while cleanliness was guaranteed by the presence of plenty of bathroom attendants.
Hotel chain Le Méridien
is marketing itself as a destination for art enthusiasts. As part of
its “Unlock Art” program, it has cut deals with local contemporary
cultural institutions to allow hotel guests free entry by presenting
their artist-designed room key cards and it has hired modern art
curator Jérôme Sans to organize special exhibits. Partner arts
institutions include the Yerba Buena Center for the Arts in San
Francisco, the Museum of Contemporary Arts (MOCA) in Shanghai, the
Vienna Succession, Nouveau Musée National de Monaco, Galleriiizu
Contemporary Arts Centre in Kuala Lumpur, and About Studio/About Café
in Bangkok. Ultimately, the goal is for every Le Méridien hotel
worldwide to have partnerships with leading cultural institutions.- Austrian Airlines
offers passengers free entry to cultural institutions in Vienna with
their boarding cards. Passengers traveling with the airline can keep
the tear-off stub from their used boarding cards (along with a photo
ID) for free entry to five museums in Vienna.
Again, there is no brand that cannot apply the BRAND BUTLERS trend
in 2008. Being relevant (gasp), assisting and facilitating potential
and existing customers when they truly appreciate it (as opposed to
inundating them with advertising) will go down well. Promise. More
examples in our 2008 Trend Report.

Let's have a more in-depth look at the 'participation sphere'. For years, we've been going on about GENERATION C, with the C mainly representing 'content'. In other words, digital creation. Pictures. Movies. Blogs. Music.
It's a mainstream trend now, one that keeps giving, with millions of
consumers uploading their creative endeavors online, and tens of
millions of others enjoying the fruits of their creativity.
User-generated content, at least in the online world, has grown from a
teenage hobby to an almost equal contender to established entities in
news, media, entertainment and craft.
And yes, as predicted, GENERATION C is increasingly being rewarded
for its output. In fact, with some members of GENERATION C attracting
mass audiences, there's real money to be made. In its first year, video
sharing site Revver,
which matches every video uploaded with advertisements and splits the
ad revenue 50/50 with the video's creator and then shares 20% off the
top with the video's distributor, has paid USD 1 million to video
creators and sharers.
So what's next for GENERATION C? With (in particular younger)
consumers having come to expect to be able to create anything they want
as long as it is digital, and to customize and personalize many
physical goods, the next frontier will be digitally designing products
from scratch, then having them turned into real physical goods as well. In fact, expect MIY | MAKE IT YOURSELF (and then SIY | SELL IT YOURSELF) ventures to become increasingly sophisticated in the next 12 months:
- New Zealand-based Ponoko (which works like a CafePress
for 3D objects) is offering consumers a new way to turn their creative
ideas into real-world objects. After uploading their own design to the
website (in EPS file format), or choosing a free design, users can
choose from a variety of materials. Ponoko then runs the design through
a laser cutter. Besides offering access to professional tools to
manufacture products, Ponoko also helps users bring their products to
market. Once they’re ready to sell, members can add photos of their
product to their profile page, together with a description and pricing
information. Products can either be delivered to the designer for
assembly before being shipped to customers, or self-assembly products
can be sent directly to the end-customer. Ponoko currently only offers
two-dimensional sheet cutting, which limits designs to flat objects or
three-dimensional objects that can be assembled from flat pieces, but
plans for 3D printing are in the works.
As well as being a manufacturing platform, Ponoko also serves as a
community where fledgling one-off fabricators and designers can
exchange ideas and help solve each other’s problems. The larger goal,
according to Ponoko, is to be a catalyst that helps bring personal
manufacturing of individualized products to the masses.
- Swedish design group FRONT has launched Sketch Furniture,
which is a method to materialize freehand sketches. Pen strokes made in
the air are recorded with Motion Capture, and the resulting 3-D
patterns are output digitally to a laser sintering machine. Over
several days, the machine produces the object by shaping and hardening
0.1-mm layers of liquid plastic. Sketch Furniture is on view and on
sale (about USD 10,500 per piece) at the Barry Friedman Gallery in New
York.
- Fab Lab Bcn
(Barcelona) is part of the worldwide network of Fab Labs, an initiative
of MIT Center for Bits and Atoms, and provides a laser-cutter, water
jet, 3D printer, mini-mill and other machines for participants to use.
Fab Lab Bcn's 4x8 Workshops focus on creating objects from 4x8 feet
sheets of plywood using digital tools. One of Fab Lab's initiators is
Neil Gershenfeld, professor at MIT and author of FAB: The Coming Revolution on Your Desktop. Other Fab Labs have been opened in rural India, northern Norway, Ghana, Boston and Costa Rica.
Even sweeter? Designing something and then have it made at home (which reminds us of INSPERIENCES):

- The Desktop Factory 3D printer,
with a list price of USD 4,995, uses an inexpensive halogen light
source and drum printing technology to build robust parts from
composite plastic powder, layer by layer. Desktop Factory envisages
that within three years, Desktop Factory's 3D printers will be
affordable for home use.
Now, we're not saying every consumer is
going to design and manufacture his or her own furniture or appliances.
Rather, MIY is yet another piece of the participation puzzle: enabling
those consumers who feel like it to call the shots, bypassing
traditional players. In future briefings we’ll address the implications
of what this choice – being able to consume ready-made or create their own versions of anything and everything – will mean for the behavior and expectations of younger generations.

No! Not another crowd-esque trend! Don't worry; CROWD MINING is
simply a moniker for how we see crowd-based business concepts evolving
in 2008. But first let's take a look at some of the 'crowd pleasers' we
enjoyed tracking this year:
- Remember SellaBand,
which lets fans sponsor unknown bands and artists by buying the band's
shares or parts? (Once a band has raised USD 50,000 by selling 5,000
parts, SellaBand sets up a professional recording session. The recorded
songs are sold to new fans, and both the artists and owners of their
parts (Believers) receive a share of the income generated through music
sales and advertising revenues.) They're certainly having fun: a few
weeks ago, Believers who own parts in Cubworld, Nemesea, Second Person
and Maitreya received their first payout, which was transferred to
their Believer Balance. While the first payout wasn't massive (in
SellaBand's words: "Enough to buy a beer at the pub, or maybe even a
round or two"), it's a sign that SellaBand's crowdfunding and
crowdrewarding model is working as planned. Ad revenues are expected to
grow over the next few months, as SellaBand is working on deals with
media agencies for countries outside their main three markets—the
Netherlands, United States and United Kingdom. One to watch this year.
- MyFootballClub, which launched in May 2007, recently announced that they've agreed to buy a controlling stake in Ebbsfleet United FC,
with the option to buy the the remaining share in the future. To
refresh your memory: in less than three months, MyFootballClub signed
up 50,000 people willing to pay a GBP 35 membership fee to buy and
manage a soccer team with a crowd of other dedicated fans.
MyFootballClub members will vote on player selection, transfers and all
other major decisions. When it got down to picking a team to buy,
MyFootballClub was approached by nine football club owners and also
sought contact with several others. Some of the crowd's favorite clubs
didn't make the cut, because they had too much debt or were too
regional. One of the reasons for picking Ebbsfleet United is that it
stands a good chance to reach the national Football League. We'll
definitely keep score of this one in 2008.
- P2P banking pioneers Zopa and Prosper
are still doing well, in fact, P2P banking is an excellent example of
how fast a new concept can spread, and also how much opportunity
remains in turning consumers into mini-banks. Quick recap: peer-to-peer
lending marketplaces allow people to lend money directly to others,
cutting out banks and other middlemen. Which means better interest
rates for borrowers and higher returns for lenders. Described as eBay
for loans, the P2P money exchanges work as follows: borrowers list loan
details and a personal profile, and lenders bid on the loan. Lowest
interest rates win. Lenders bid in increments and minimize their risk
by bidding on numerous loans. A study by Online Banking Report predicts
that by 2011 person-to-person lending in the US could surpass 100,000
loans a year, worth more than USD 1 billion. Unlike eBay, which can
connect buyers and sellers from around the world, peer-to-peer lending
is generally bound by local financial regulations. Which means there's
ample room for national or regional versions. Besides Zopa and Prosper,
here’s what was out there last time we looked, from the promising to
the obscure, and from the established to ‘coming soon’:
So... lots of innovation going on, yet there’s plenty
of room for a second player in all of these markets; and dozens of
countries don’t yet have a P2P banking brand. And what about the many
other financial concepts waiting to be explored, from crowd investments
(check out You Be The VC)
to insurance plays? Will more consumers become comfortable with these
concepts? Will big banks step in? This one too is all yours in 2008 ;-)
Now, let's go back to CROWD MINING: when co-creating, co-funding,
co-buying, co-designing, co-managing *anything* with 'crowds', the
emphasis in 2008 will move from just getting the masses in, to mining
those crowds for the rough and polished diamonds. How to do that?
Shower them with love, respect and heaps of money, of course. Two
examples, from Netflix and Google, setting the standards for CROWD
MINING in the year to come:
- Still going strong: Netflix, the DVD rental site, is offering a Grand Prize of USD 1 million
to the individual who can substantially improve the accuracy of
predictions about how much someone is going to love a movie based on
their movie preferences. From their site (great copy if you ever want
to set up something similar for your own brand):
“Netflix is all about connecting people to the movies they love. To
help customers find those movies, we’ve developed our world-class movie
recommendation system: Cinematch. Now there are a lot of interesting
alternative approaches to how Cinematch works that we haven’t tried.
We’re curious whether any of these can beat Cinematch by making better
predictions.
So, we thought we’d make a contest out of finding the answer. It’s
'easy', really. We provide you with a lot of anonymous rating data, and
a prediction accuracy bar that is 10% better than what Cinematch can do
on the same training data set. If you develop a system that we judge
most beats that bar on the qualifying test set we provide, you get
serious money and the bragging rights. But (and you knew there would be
a catch, right?) only if you share your method with us and describe to
the world how you did it and why it works. To keep things interesting,
in addition to the Grand Prize, we’re also offering a USD 50,000
Progress Prize each year the contest runs. It goes to the team whose
system we judge shows the most improvement over the previous year’s
best accuracy bar on the same qualifying test set. No improvement, no
prize."
To keep things transparent, progress can be monitored on an online leaderboard.
So far, more than 27,000 contestants from 161 countries have submitted
their guesses, with the winner for 2007 being Team KorBell for their
October 2007 submission, achieving an 8.43% improvement over Cinematch,
which netted them the USD 50,000 Progress Prize. Now, they got close,
but not close enough, which means the USD 1 million grand prize is
still up for grabs ;-)
-
The Open Handset Alliance's most prominent member, Google, is developing Android:
the first complete, open, and free mobile platform. To support the
quest for apps that surprise and delight mobile users, to be created by
developers around the world, Google has launched the Android Developer
Challenge, which will provide USD 10 million in awards for innovative
applications. The first part of the challenge (submissions are accepted
from January 2 through March 3, 2008), will reward 50 entries with USD
25,000 to fund further development. Those selected will then be
eligible for even greater recognition via ten USD 275,000 awards and
ten USD 100,000 awards.
So... What's your brand's biggest challenge (or opportunity), and
what kind of dough would you be willing to dole out to have brilliant
crowds solve it for you in 2008?

Sure, there's much, much more in 2008
that's worthy of your attention. But for now, take any of the eight
trends above, sit down with your colleagues and/or clients, and figure
out how to come up with at least:
- one new premium product
- one 'snack' version of an existing product
- two or three major tweaks to your ecommerce presence
- one eco-iconic innovation
- two or three marketing campaigns that are about aiding consumers, not stalking them
- one MIY concept
- one campaign to ask the rest of the world for help with at least one of your company's major opportunities or challenges
For some help, don't forget our 'How to Apply Trends' checklist:
- Vision—Do these trends have the potential to influence or shape your company's vision?
- New business concepts—Can these trends point you to new business concepts, or entirely new ventures?
- New products, services, experiences—Can these trends inspire you to add 'something' new for a certain customer segment?
- Marketing, advertising, PR—Will these trends help you speak the language of those consumers that are already 'living' a trend?
Source: www.trendwatching.com
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